Have you ever wondered why some people seem to always make money in the stock market while others struggle? It might look like they are very smart or have some secret trick. But the truth is — in investing, your results come from both skill and luck.
Let’s understand this in a simple way.
1. What Does “Skill + Luck” Mean?
When you invest in stocks, two things decide your result:
Skill — how well you study the company, stay patient, and make good decisions.
Luck — things you cannot control, like sudden market news, world events, or timing.
Even a great investor can lose money sometimes because of bad luck. And sometimes a beginner makes money just because the market was rising.
2. Why Short-Term Success Can Be Misleading
Imagine your friend buys a stock and it doubles in one month. That doesn’t always mean they’re a genius investor. It might just be luck.
Many fund managers also look great in one year and then fall behind the next year. This happens because markets change — and luck changes too.
So, don’t judge anyone (even yourself) by short-term results. Real skill shows up only over many years.
3. The Power of “Reversion to the Mean”
This sounds like a big word, but it’s simple.
It means things usually return to normal.
If a fund does extremely well one year, it might not repeat next year.
If another fund does poorly now, it might bounce back later.
That’s why you should never choose a fund or stock only by past performance. What worked before may not work again.
4. As Everyone Gets Smarter, Luck Matters More
Here’s a funny truth — as more people learn and invest wisely, the competition gets tougher.
Now, everyone is skilled. So what decides who wins in the short term? Luck.
That’s why two smart investors can get very different results even if both did the right thing.
5. How to Find True Skill
So, if luck can trick us, how can we find who’s really skilled?
The answer: don’t look at the result — look at the process.
The best investors have:
- Sharp analysis — They study deeply and buy only when there’s a margin of safety.
- Strong psychology — They stay calm, patient, and don’t panic during market falls.
- Sound structure — They think long-term, not short-term.
6. The Real Secret: Focus on Process, Not Outcome
Anyone can look smart for a year because of luck.
But only those with a strong process win for decades.
Luck will come and go — but a good process keeps working again and again.
So next time you see someone showing big profits, ask yourself:
“Is it real skill or just short-term luck?”
Final Thought
In the world of investing, luck shines bright for a moment,
but skill and discipline keep the light glowing forever.
Be patient. Learn the process. Trust time.
That’s how real wealth grows.